Daily Brief Archive

Explore our complete collection of market insights and commentary.

Friday, 17 July 2026 ∙ 8 min read

Oil at one-month highs and a chip-led sell-off knocked equities off record, and the disinflation trade is wobbling

The disinflation rally that carried equities to records this week ran into the two forces it had been discounting. A semiconductor sell-off knocked the S&P 500 off its all-time high and rippled across Asia, while Brent h

Thursday, 16 July 2026 ∙ 8 min read

A second soft inflation print buried the July hike, and equities ran to records while oil still smoulders

For the second day running, an inflation print came in below forecast, and that was enough to finish what Tuesday started. June producer prices fell where the market expected a small rise, the odds of a Federal Reserve h

Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ∙ 9 min read

June inflation cooled sharply and the July Fed hike vanished, but rising oil is already rebuilding the risk

June inflation did what the market had almost stopped expecting. Headline prices fell 0.4% on the month, the sharpest drop since 2020, and core held flat, enough to take a July Federal Reserve hike from a near-even bet b

Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ∙ 9 min read

Oil's return premium collides with CPI day, and the disinflation trade the dollar priced in June is unravelling

In June, falling oil quietly did the Federal Reserve's work, and this morning that help has been withdrawn. Brent is back near $85 after its steepest one-day gain since 2020, driven by a reinstated Hormuz blockade and a

Monday, 13 July 2026 ∙ 9 min read

A weekend of strikes reopens the war premium, and sterling's Burnham relief runs into a firmer dollar

A single weekend has undone a week of calm. Fresh US and Iranian strikes, and Tehran's declaration that the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice, have put Brent back above $79 and handed the dollar the safe-ha

Friday, 10 July 2026 ∙ 8 min read

Oil keeps fading the war premium, but the rate-hike repricing it triggered isn't backing down

An energy shock has done something rare: it has flipped the global interest-rate narrative from cuts to hikes, and it has done so almost in unison. Renewed US and Iranian strikes around the Strait of Hormuz sent oil shar

Thursday, 09 July 2026 ∙ 8 min read

A September Fed hike is back near 70%, and the oil shock is rewriting every hedging calculus

The oil shock markets had priced out is back, and with it the inflation trade that dominated the first half of the year. A second US strike on Iran and fresh threats to the Strait of Hormuz have driven Brent up nearly 10

Wednesday, 08 July 2026 ∙ 9 min read

Daily Brief

Markets spent the past fortnight pricing a Gulf at peace, and overnight they were reminded how conditional that pricing was. Fresh US strikes on Iran, following attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, sent Brent up

Tuesday, 07 July 2026 ∙ 8 min read

A services beat steadied the dollar, but its failure to hold 101 leaves the Fed minutes decisive

The question yesterday's session left open has been answered, and only halfway. June's ISM services reading held at 54.0, firm enough to hand the dollar a bounce and lift the index back above 101, before the move stalled

Monday, 06 July 2026 ∙ 7 min read

Oil's slide to four-month lows is easing the inflation impulse, and the rate-hike case with it

A single soft payrolls print has done more to reset the rate outlook than weeks of central bank speeches. The dollar has slipped to a two-week low, its sharpest weekly fall since April, and a parallel slide in oil to fou