Go back

Daily Brief Archive

Explore our complete collection of market insights and commentary.

The Fed's first hike since 2023 lands tonight, but the dot plot, not the rate, is the event
Wednesday, 16 September 2026 ∙ 9 min read
The Fed's first hike since 2023 lands tonight, but the dot plot, not the rate, is the event

The week the market spent a fortnight pricing reaches its first decision tonight, and the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates for the first time since 2023. The number is close to fully priced, so the event is the

Three central banks decide inside three days, each forecasting an oil price that keeps moving on the headlines
Tuesday, 15 September 2026 ∙ 9 min read
Three central banks decide inside three days, each forecasting an oil price that keeps moving on the headlines

The meetings the market has spent a fortnight pricing arrive this week, and the Federal Reserve gets the first word: its two-day meeting opens today, with a quarter-point hike close to fully priced and the argument alrea

A Saudi pipeline shut over the weekend, and now three central banks have to price the oil it was carrying
Monday, 14 September 2026 ∙ 9 min read
A Saudi pipeline shut over the weekend, and now three central banks have to price the oil it was carrying

A pipeline did the work the diplomats were meant to undo. Brent is back near $108 this morning, a four-month high, after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West line, the roughly seven-million-barrel-a-day artery that routes cru

Oil's overnight surge past $109 forces the Fed's hand hours before a make-or-break inflation print
Friday, 11 September 2026 ∙ 8 min read
Oil's overnight surge past $109 forces the Fed's hand hours before a make-or-break inflation print

The energy shock that has shadowed markets since February turned acute again overnight. A widening of the US-Iran conflict sent Brent up more than 7% to near $109, its sharpest single-session jump of the crisis, and the

Economists see one more ECB hike, markets see three, and today's projections begin settling it
Thursday, 10 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
Economists see one more ECB hike, markets see three, and today's projections begin settling it

Brent went through $102 overnight, its highest since May, and the first central bank that has to answer for it decides at 13:15 BST. A quarter point from the ECB is 99% priced, so the number that matters is not the decis

US strikes on Iranian tankers pushed Brent to $99, and global bond yields went with it
Wednesday, 09 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
US strikes on Iranian tankers pushed Brent to $99, and global bond yields went with it

Brent is at $99.46 this morning, a dollar from a number that reopens every hedging assumption in the market, after US forces struck Iranian tankers at Kharg Island, the terminal that loads roughly nine-tenths of Iran's c

South Africa may print a contraction this morning, fifteen days before a rate hike it cannot afford
Tuesday, 08 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
South Africa may print a contraction this morning, fifteen days before a rate hike it cannot afford

The dollar index sits at 98.83 this morning, a second consecutive session lower and now below the 99 floor it defended all summer, which means the entire post-payrolls rally has been unwound in two sessions without the F

The rand has begun giving it back, and now needs the SARB to defend 15.98
Monday, 07 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
The rand has begun giving it back, and now needs the SARB to defend 15.98

US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend in retaliation for ballistic missile attacks on American warships, Tehran hit vessels linked to the US and said it would declare a restricted maritime zone beyo

A softer dollar and steadier gilts hand sterling a reprieve, but the jobs number can take it straight back
Friday, 04 September 2026 ∙ 9 min read
A softer dollar and steadier gilts hand sterling a reprieve, but the jobs number can take it straight back

For a week markets traded a single conviction, that the Fed would raise rates this month, and overnight it broke. A more cautious message from one Fed governor pared the hike bets that had run the dollar, gilt yields and

Gold bounced off a four-week low as yields hit three-year highs, and the rand took the rebound
Thursday, 03 September 2026 ∙ 10 min read
Gold bounced off a four-week low as yields hit three-year highs, and the rand took the rebound

American employers added 38,000 private-sector jobs last month, the weakest print since January, and the market's odds on a September rate rise barely flinched. That tells you where the hawkish case now lives: not in the

…